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Counterintuitive · manuscript §4.2

The H-zone paradox

Textbook Mohs triage says the H-zone is the high-risk territory — nose, ear, eye, lip. You'd expect it to need the most sections. In this cohort of 408 procedures, the opposite happens. L-zone tumours require almost twice as many sections on average. Why?

Three zones, three stories

H-zone · high-riskn=292

nose · ear · eye · lip · temple

Mean sections

9.0

Mean area (cm²)

2.09

% ≥ 13 sections

41%

Sections / stage

3.0

Anatomically high-risk for recurrence. Cosmetically sensitive; surgeons tend to take smaller, more conservative stages.

M-zone · mediumn=98

forehead · cheek · scalp

Mean sections

12.3

Mean area (cm²)

5.57

% ≥ 13 sections

59%

Sections / stage

4.6

Intermediate anatomical risk.

L-zone · low-riskn=18

neck · hand · trunk · pretibial

Mean sections

15.7

Mean area (cm²)

12.55

% ≥ 13 sections

89%

Sections / stage

8.6

Anatomically low-risk — but L-zone tumours in this cohort are ~6× larger than H-zone tumours and require many more sections.

See the flip

Compare the three zones side by side. Switch the metric to spot the lurking variable.

Zones compared by…

Toggle between these two metrics to see the paradox unfold.

H-zone · 292 cases9.0
M-zone · 98 cases12.3
L-zone · 18 cases15.7

Counterintuitive reading: L-zone (lowest anatomical risk) requires the most sections. H-zone (highest risk) is lowest.

Key finding

Size explains section count, not anatomical risk label.

L-zone tumours in this cohort averaged 12.55 cm² versus 2.09 cm² for H-zone — a six-fold difference. Patients only end up with a Mohs referral on L-zone sites (neck, trunk, hand) when the tumour has grown large enough to warrant it.

Smaller H-zone tumours reach Mohs earlier because of aesthetic concerns, producing a lopsided size distribution between zones.

Surgical behaviour clue

H-zone surgeons cut in smaller slices.

Sections per stage:

2.98

H-zone

vs

8.58

L-zone

Same surgeon, same scalpel — but on the nose they take smaller, more conservative cuts to spare cosmetically sensitive tissue. Fewer sections per stage, more stages, same total caution.

Stages-per-case didn't differ significantly between zones (p = 0.11 in the manuscript) — the real variable is slice size.

Every case — area vs sections

Each dot is one of 408 procedures. Toggle zones to isolate. The 13-section horizontal line is the ≥13 outcome cut-off.

05132030400.10.511.55103013 sections · outcome cut-offTumour area (cm², log scale)Sections

Notice how the L-zone cluster (coral) lives in the upper-right — large tumours, many sections. H-zone (teal) is spread left and low.

Caveat from the paper: the L-zone cohort is small (n = 18), so these conclusions need external validation. Still, the pattern is consistent with the size-driven interpretation of the ML model's predictions.